Since Hamas’ attack on 7 October 2023, Israel has been engaged in its longest war ever, conducting large-scale military operations that have quickly expanded beyond Gaza to include the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and even Iran. The geographical expansion of Israeli airstrikes, combined with extended ground incursions in the Gaza Strip and South Lebanon, reflects a determination to neutralise – at least for some time – hostile actors to the Hebrew State and profoundly alter the balance of forces in the Middle East. Factoring in the weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, this Security & Strategy takes stock of Israel’s tactical victories and strategic challenges. It questions the sustainability of the Israel Defence Forces’ war effort and considers three potential trajectories that could herald the dawn of a new regional order.
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Security & Strategy 154
Pax Israeliana, Stalemate on All Fronts
or Regional Conflagration? Three Scenarios
for the ‘post-October 7’ Middle East
Chloé BERGER & Didier LEROY