What if, against all the odds, the unthinkable were to happen anyway? Are we ready? Have we dared to envisage the worst case, or did we stay in the comfort zone of the most likely? Multiple futures must make us think and prepare so we could act rather than just endure.
Before embarking on a foresight exercise, it is essential to identify past surprises and unexpected developments. One must also have the courage to acknowledge own weaknesses and strengths of the adversary. Next comes the analysis of constant data and contextual or disruptive elements that may influence the course of events. The process may seem tedious, but this preparatory work is essential for identifying coherent scenarios and logical sequences, which enable us to anticipate the most likely but also the most dangerous courses of action and to reflect on their consequences. Finally, we need to incorporate the conclusions of our analysis into our decisions and priorities to avoid strategic surprises and build resilience in the face of the threat.
(Only available in French)
Research line: Eurasia
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